The early January king tide along the Central Coast reached higher water levels than scientists initially predicted, driven by a combination of winter storms, heavy rainfall, and strong winds.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the highest water level at Port San Luis reached approximately 7.59 feet, nearly a foot above the initial prediction for the area. The peak occurred on Jan. 3, during an active stretch of holiday storm systems moving through the region.
King tides are a colloquial term used to describe the highest high tides of the year, Karen Kavanaugh, an oceanographer with NOAA, told New Times. Along the West Coast, they typically occur during what scientists call perigean spring tides, when the sun, moon, and Earth are aligned, and the moon is closest to Earth in its orbit.
“When those two events align, a full or new moon and perigee, it creates extra gravitational pull,” Kavanaugh said. “So that’s what we call a perigean spring tide, and that’s what tends to be causing your king tides on the West Coast.”
NOAA’s tide predictions do account for these astronomical forces and can be calculated years in advance. However, the predictions do not factor in weather conditions, which can significantly influence observed water levels.
Kavanaugh explained that the gauge at Port San Luis is not measuring the tide itself but the actual water levels in relation to a specific point on land.
“That includes the heavy rains, … heavy winds that push the water toward the station, and ocean currents that were changing and pushing water into the bay area,” she said
Paul Choboter, a physical oceanographer and mathematics professor at Cal Poly, agreed that weather-related factors are the most common reason predicted water levels differ from what is observed.
“The biggest effect will be the weather,” Choboter said. “Winds will blow the water to be higher. … If the winds are blowing on shore, you’ll have water essentially piling up toward the coast.”
Both scientists noted that while climate change is contributing to long-term sea level rise, the elevated water levels observed during this king tide were primarily due to short-term weather conditions.
“I personally believe that on that day, the extra high tide … is not from climate effects,” Choboter said. “That’s just from that given storm on that day.”
NOAA tracks and ranks high-water events through its coastal inundation dashboard, which places the recent king tide below historic flooding events but still within the range of minor coastal flooding.
Ahead of this year’s king tides, Cal Poly and California State Parks brought back an annual citizen science effort, the California King Tides Project, that encourages the community to upload photos of the year’s highest ties to visualize how rising sea levels may affect California’s coastline and communities.
“Rising waters flooded the Pasadena parking lot in Baywood Park and nearby areas around Baywood Pier. This was one of the highest tides ever recorded at this location,” resident and former meteorologist for PG&E John Lindsey said on his Diablo Canyon Weather Forecast Facebook page on Jan. 3.
The community can upload photos to the California King Tides Project at coastal.ca.gov/kingtides/participate.html. ∆
This article appears in Volunteers 2026.