Democrats are energized 

So far this summer, our weather has been unusually mild, at least until this week, on this side of the Cuesta Grade. I'm occasionally bothered, but also kept cool by those meddlesome winds from the west.

From the east, however, a shocking tornado swept across the nation just after the solstice: On June 23, the Supreme Court announced its ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. This decision overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had guaranteed a constitutional right to early abortion for almost a half-century.

In his concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas even challenged the right to contraception and the right of same-sex couples to marry or to adopt children. In fact, the ruling casts doubt upon any Supreme Court precedent not "deeply rooted" in American history.

The court ruling also shattered the 1992 precedent in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which upheld the fundamental principle of Roe that found reproductive rights in the Constitution. The Casey decision did allow states to regulate the practice of abortion as long as they didn't place an "undue burden" on a woman's right to choose abortion prior to fetal viability, typically around 23 to 25 weeks.

In Dobbs, the court upheld a Mississippi statute prohibiting abortion after only 15 weeks. The state's 2007 "trigger law" now prohibits virtually all abortions unless the mother is in mortal danger, and for some rape victims—but not for victims of incest.

The Dobbs ruling has sent our politics into a maelstrom as we now approach the "Dog Days" of September and the November election.

The vast majority of Americans oppose the Supreme Court's reasoning. Most agree that the decision to maintain or terminate a problem pregnancy belongs to the woman alone—in consultation with her doctor(s), her partner, or anyone she trusts. The majority also concurs with broad limits in the Casey decision, allowing reasonable regulation of abortion practices, subject to the "undue burden" test before fetal viability.

That's why the American people, waking up to the Dobbs decision, are now far more likely to return pro-choice candidates to the Congress in November. And that's a dramatic turnaround: All last winter and spring, it was conventional wisdom that Democrats would take a severe drubbing. Anti-abortion GOP candidates were expected to gain up to 30 House seats and at least one Senate seat to seize complete control of Congress. But the chaos from the court has shattered those expectations.

Polls now show that the "generic ballot" choice now leans Democratic; previously, Republicans had held a solid lead since January. Democratic voter registration has soared, especially among women, as pro-choice Democrats warn voters of the Republican push to criminalize choice. Many observers now believe that Democrats have a realistic chance of holding a majority of the Congress.

Our congressional district should continue in the Democratic column: San Luis Obispo hasn't had a Republican representing us in Congress since 1996, when Walter Capps whipped a one-term GOP incumbent. Sadly, Walter died of a fatal heart condition midway through his first term, but voters then chose his widow, Lois Capps, to continue in Walter's seat.

A former school nurse, Lois was a staunch advocate for abortion rights throughout her 19 years in Congress. In her memoir Keeping Faith, she described how she "chose to face the issue head on right from the start, ... stating my pro-choice background and position clearly. I wanted to leave no question about where I stood on that issue."

Lois represented us until she retired in 2016. Her successor, Salud Carbajal, continues to reflect the pro-choice views of Central Coast voters. On July 15, Salud voted with his Democratic colleagues in the House to enshrine abortion rights in federal law: The Women's Health Protection Act would essentially restore the principles of Roe and Casey. He also supports H.R. 8297, Ensuring Women's Right to Reproductive Freedom, assuring the right to travel for abortion services.

A GOP filibuster has stalled both of these bills in the Senate, but after Dobbs, one would be hard-pressed to find a Republican candidate in any competitive race who will own up to their opposition to reproductive rights. The LA Times reported this week how three GOP incumbents in California are facing a stiff Democratic challenge: All three had signed the "Life at Conception Act" that would ban all abortions nationwide, likely affecting many forms of contraception as well. Against the headwinds of the Dobbs ruling, however, these GOP cowards refuse to admit their opposition to reproductive rights—as does Salud's opponent in November.

In spite of the intransigence of Republicans, Democrats have delivered on many issues important to voters: Reducing inflation, regulating firearms, stimulating manufacturing, forgiving student debt, restoring tax equity, and tackling climate change. Republicans have been left in the dust as they ignore our climate catastrophe, rising domestic terrorism, and shocking revelations about security lapses in the Trump administration.

That turbulence from the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision is only one factor that has blown wind into the sails of pro-choice Democratic campaigns at all levels. It's an ill wind, to be sure—but it's blowing in somebody good: The candidates fighting for environmental justice, economic equity, national security, and the fundamental right to reproductive health care. Δ

John Ashbaugh has been engaged in local politics since arriving in SLO County in 1977. Write a response for publication by emailing [email protected].