What Are the Odds of You Being Murdered, Hitting a Hole-in-One, or Getting Jury Duty? We’ve Got the Numbers

BY RACHEL ROBERTSHAW and RICHARD JACKOWAY

We take our chances every day. Drive down the freeway and you take the chance that some idiot is going to crash into you. Buy a lottery ticket and you hope for a $20 million jackpot. Frankly, the odds are better of you getting hit than winning the big one.

We don’t even have to do anything to roll the dice. What are the odds that an earthquake will strike today or you’ll get a jury notice in the mail? Most of us don’t know.

Some of the odds, like the earthquake (see the Parkfield Experiment) are unknowable. Nevertheless, we decided to track down the chances of a few dozen local things happening or not. The results may surprise you. We asked readers to make their guesses on a few of the odds, and their answers varied wildly (see accompanying story).

A few caveats before we begin. When we give odds (unless we specify otherwise) we are speaking of the average county adult. So when we talk about the odds of having your car stolen, we are assuming that you're old enough to drive and one of the vast majority that have a car. Obviously if you’re not or you don’t, then your odds are negligible. Also, some of the statistics are estimates, but they represent the best percentages we were able to obtain.

So here they are, the odds that run your life:

What are the odds that the first baby of 2000 will be born in the first hour of the new year?

If you take out any publicity-seeking parents and obstetricians who would schedule a C-section to cash in on the first baby phenomenon, you're left with the natural births and emergency Cs, which the County Health Department tells us would equal just about six births a day. Which means, assuming an equal distribution, about 1 in 4 odds of having the first tyke crowned before 1 a.m.

What are the odds that a SLO County teenager smokes?

Just a shade over 1 in 9, according to the county Tobacco Control Department. That’s not as low as they would like it, but is lower than the state average.

What are your odds of being called for jury duty in 2000?

A healthy 2 in 5. If it seems like you get that jury summons in your mail box every year, you’re not far off the mark. Fully 40 percent of adults in SLO County get called in to do their civic duty, according to the helpful people over at the courts office.

What are the odds of a child in SLO County living in poverty?

One in 5. Sad, but it’s a good deal better than the statewide average of 3 in 10.

What are the odds that an electrical engineering major at Cal Poly is female?

Fewer than 1 in 7 electrical engineering students at Poly are female. That means that in a class of 50 there will only be about seven women.

What are the odds that someone will get dealt 13 spades in one hand while playing the Wednesday night bridge game at the SLO Senior Center this year?

Not very good. We have to make a few assumptions here. First let’s assume that the club gets an average of 12 tables each game and that they play every week except for Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks. And we assume that the cards are adequately shuffled, assuring a random distribution of cards. Further, let’s assume that an average of 26 hands are dealt in each game. Then the players would be dealt 62,400 hands this year. Still, the odds are only 1 in 93 million that anyone will be dealt a hand of 13 spades. Far more likely, some joker has rigged the deal.

What are the odds that you'll graduate from Cal Poly in four years?

Pretty bad. The odds are about 1 in 10 that a student will graduate in four years, according to statistics gathered by the Institutional Studies Department at Cal Poly. It does vary slightly from year to year, but generally the rate is only about 10 percent. Take into consideration that some majors on campus are meant to take longer than four years.

What are the odds that a dog taken to Animal Services will be euthanized?

Almost 2 in 5. Of 928 dogs that were taken in by the San Luis Obispo County pound 349 were euthanized–a rate of 37.6 percent. Of the dogs that were admitted 308 (one out of three) were turned in by their owners.

What are the odds that your kid will eat pizza in school this week, if your child buys lunch every day?

High...really high. If your kid is in elementary school there is usually a specific day of the week that is reserved for pizza. So if your kid always buys his or her lunch it is almost 100 percent that they will be served pizza at least one day of the week, although the types of pizza dishes do vary. In high school it is harder to say what the odds are that a kid will buy pizza, but assuming that your kid likes pizza, it is pretty likely that they will buy it at least once during the week, since pizza is offered every day.

What are odds that a library patron will return the book on time?

SLO County residents are serious about their library books. Morgan Philbin, circulation manager for San Luis Obispo City-County Library, estimates that the odds are about 30 to 1 that people turn in their books on time. Only about 3 to 4 percent of books are turned in late.

What are the odds that a local video renter will return the video on time?

It's about 1 in 2. It may be that people just forget, or it could be that they just didn't get to finish the movie, but video stores estimate that one out of two patrons returns movies late.

What are the odds that you'll appear in Street Talk this year?

Not very high. With only four people appearing in every issue of New Times, and 52 issues a year, the odds of you being chosen out of the 240,000 county residents or estimated 5,000 tourists that are here on any given day is about 1 in 1,180, give or take a dozen. You can improve your chances if you hang out at Farmers Market on Thursday nights. About three-quarters of recent Street Talks were shot there.

What are the odds that someone will hit a hole-in-one at the par 3 eighth hole at the Avila Beach Resort golf course today?

The odds that someone hits a hole-in-one on the eighth hole today are about 243 to 1, since there are only one or two of these shots made per year. However, the resort estimates that about 170 rounds are played per day, so the odds that an individual Joe Schmoe plays a round of golf and makes the shot is about 1 in 41,310. This is assuming that everyone who plays has a fairly equal chance of getting a hole-in-one. That doesn’t speak too highly for our local golfing expertise since the PGA says that on the average par 3 (there are three of them on the Avila course) your basic amateur has a 1 in 11,000 chance of hitting a hole-in-one and pros make it once in every 3,000 or so shots.

What are the odds that an Apple Farm customer will buy apple pie?

One in 16. Bakery workers at the Apple Farm estimate that about one out of every 12 customers at the Apple Farm actually buys pie. Apple Farm waiter Bobby Schuberg says that apple pie is the most popular of their pies. "Of the customers that do buy pie here," Schuberg said, "I would say that three out of four is apple."

What are the odds that someone in SLO County will be murdered today?

Since the crime rates change every year, this was a hard one. But...with help from the California Criminal Justice Profile published by the California Department of Justice, we were able to come up with some figures of what the department calls "willful homicides" (meaning that it is intentional). The odds someone in SLO County will be murdered today is approximately 1 in 52.5.

This sounds worse than it really is. It doesn't mean that 1 out of every 52.5 people will be murdered, but actually that a murder occurs, on average, every 52.5 days in this county. There are usually fewer than seven total "willful homicides" throughout the year in SLO County, and the odds of YOU being murdered are about 1 in 12.6 million.

What are the odds of there being a traffic accident today on the stretch of Highway 46 in SLO County?

One in 9. There are about 40.34 accidents yearly on this 28-mile stretch, according to the Traffic Safety division of Caltrans. This means that one occurs, on average, every nine days. Keep in mind that about 105 million vehicle-miles are traveled on this stretch per year. According to Caltrans Traffic Safety, there are actually fewer accidents on this stretch than other comparable roads.

What are the odds of having your car stolen this year?

Here? Using the same source as mentioned above, the odds are about 1 in 597 that you'll have a car stolen. On average, SLO County (car population about 219,700) has 368 cars stolen each year. According to the statistics, there seems to be a steady decline in motor vehicle theft rates.

What are the odds that Arroyo Grande High School will win the Academic Decathlon this year?

One in 6 if every competition gives each of the six competing high schools an equal chance to win. But these aren’t exactly independent Bernoulli trials (ask a Decathlon competitor if you don’t know). Arroyo Grande has won the Decathlon for the past seven-straight years and before that won "unoccasionally," according to AGHS team advisor David Foster. Still, the competitors can change each year.

What are the odds that a visitor to Hearst Castle will take the bedrooms tour?

Tour 3 is casually referred to as the "bedroom tour" because it visits a number of the castle's many boudoirs. Turns out only about 1 in 20 people take that tour. According to castle officials, 75 percent of visitors opt for the more general Tour 1; 14 percent take Tour 2; as noted, 5 percent take Tour 3; 3 percent take Tour 4; and 2 percent of the visitors choose the evening tour.

What are the odds that you have cable TV?

Approximately 7 in 10. Debbie Wood, marketing manager for Charter Communications in San Luis, said that 66.8 percent of available houses have cable. There is only a small number of unavailable houses, in rural areas, that currently can't get cable. SLO County’s numbers follow the national trend, which is about 67 percent.

What are the odds that your neighbor recycles?

About 3 in 4. John Ryan at SLOCO Recycles said that the recycling program in this area is very strong. "It's not mandatory that people recycle," Ryan said. "I think you could accurately say that recycling (rate) is running about 75 to 80 percent."

What are the odds that someone in San Luis Obispo County will win the SuperLotto jackpot?

Assuming that they all choose different sets of numbers, the odds are 1 in 316 for any given game (with 104 games a year and average county sales of 56,990, this means a winner about every three years). And we’re overdue. Since the Lottery began in October 1986 SLO County has had only two jackpot winners, although according to the odds we should have had at least four. So basically SLO is due for two jackpot winners. Right now we're running about 1 in 676.

The chances that one person will correctly guess the six winning numbers with one ticket is always about one out of 18 million, according to the State Lottery Commission, no matter how many people in the state buy tickets, which means that to have a better chance of winning the lottery than being murdered this year you have to buy 487 tickets.

To pretty much guarantee a jackpot winner in the county, every resident would have to purchase 75 lottery tickets, all with different sets of numbers. And even if we could all get together, it would cost $19.5 million and we might have to split the jackpot with some schmuck in Bakersfield who just put in a buck.

What are the odds that you make over $100,000 per year?

About 1 in 20 people in SLO County are bringing home major bacon. The median household income is about $48,000, meaning half of the county is above this and half is below.

What are the odds that an Arroyo Grande High School graduate goes to college?

About 3 in 4 AGHS graduates go to college (on average 73 percent). A third of these go to a four-year college or university, and the rest go to trade school, community colleges, or military school. Last year 86 percent of graduates went to college, but the year before only 68 percent did.

What are the odds that a country music act will open the Mid-State Fair?

If future fairs follow past patterns, there is a 4 in 5 chance that a country music act will perform on the opening night, according to fair director Steve MacElvaine. In the last 10 years there have been only two years when a country music act didn't open–in 1991 with Diana Ross and in 1999 with ZZ Top. MacElvaine said that it is kind of a tradition to have a country star perform, since it is in an agricultural community, but sometimes the performers' schedules will conflict, and the fair will schedule another event for opening night.

What are the odds that your Cuesta College teacher has a Ph.D.?

One in 13.76. There are 344 total members of the faculty at Cuesta, and 25 of them have Ph.D.'s (7.25 percent), according to Cuesta Public Affairs.

What are the odds of your plane being on time at the SLO County Airport?

About 8 to 1 in favor. The SLO County Airport has 52 total flights a day, and airline officials estimate that usually about six of them are late on the average day.

What are the odds of getting bit by a shark at the beach?

All odds about the likelihood of being bitten by a shark are spurious because there is no data that keeps track of how many people go into the water each year. In California, you are three times more likely to be fatally struck by lightning than to be killed by a shark. In a 31-year period, there were 59 injuries from sharks and six deaths. In the same period, there were 69 strikes by lightning and 18 fatalities. This means that in one year in California, for all the people who go in the water, there are fewer than two injuries caused by sharks, and a shark-related death occurs a little more than once in every 2 years. Experts do say that your odds of getting bitten by a shark change depending on where you are, but the odds are still very long.

What are the odds that a local resident is a Cuesta College student?

One in 26.7. Assuming that almost all the students live within the county, there are about 9,000 residents out of the 240,000 that are Cuesta students.

What are the odds that no one will show up for one of the screenings at the Downtown Centre tonight?

The odds are about 1 in 92 that no one will show up for one of the screenings tonight. One worker estimated that a no-show may happen about once every three months, and most likely on a weekday. In order for the cinema to find out the exact odds of nobody showing up for a screening, they would have to manually go through the records for each day, and they opted not to do that. So we're taking their estimate on it. The odds, of course, would be higher if it’s a Kirstie Alley movie

What are the odds that a CMC inmate is incarcerated for a drug offense?

About 1 in 5 California Men's Colony inmates, maybe a little more (21.6 percent), are primarily charged with some sort of drug offense, which includes possession, manufacturing, sale, etc.

How about murder?

About 1 in 7 inmates are incarcerated for murder. That includes first- and second-degree murder, manslaughter, and vehicular manslaughter. Although these inmates may have other charges (such as drug offenses) murder is their primary charge.

What are the odds of being assaulted in SLO County?

The odds are 1 in 240 that you will be assaulted sometime this year. According to information taken from California Criminal Justice Profile, there are 985 assaults (aggravated) on average each year, meaning that 2.69 people are assaulted on any given day. Still, the odds of you being assaulted today are 1 in 89,219. The number of assaults yearly seems to be declining.

What are the odds you read this whole article?

According to industry research, about 1 in 12 articles are read all the way through. So if you have (and you’re not just skipping around), thanks. Æ

Rachel Robertshaw is a New Times intern; Richard Jackoway is the managing editor.